Alright, so let’s talk about the stock market today, folks. According to Apurva Sheth, the Head of Market Perspectives & Research at SAMCO Securities, what we’re seeing right now isn’t really a bull market. Nope, it’s actually a bull illusion. Sounds pretty fancy, huh?
Sheth mentioned that the ongoing rally is quite narrow, being led by only a handful of largecaps. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is just quietly bleeding in the background. Ouch, that doesn’t sound too great for the average investor, does it?
The NSE barometer Nifty might have hit the 25,000 mark again this week after seven long months. But before you start celebrating, hold your horses. Many investors might actually be sitting on losses. Yep, you heard that right. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows in the stock market world.
Sheth from SAMCO Securities pointed out some pretty interesting facts. The Nifty Microcap 250 is still down by a whopping 12.22% from October 15, 2024. The Nifty smallcap index isn’t faring any better, with a similar decline of 12.50%. And let’s not forget about the Nifty Midcap 150 index, which has also taken a hit with a 6.09% drop during the same period. So while the headline index might be soaring, it’s definitely not a party for everyone.
Now, let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers, shall we? Among the top 750 stocks (excluding the recent 20 IPOs), a staggering 75% of them are still in the red. That’s 540 out of 730 stocks, in case you were wondering. Only 190 stocks managed to deliver positive returns during this period. So yeah, if you’re stuck in one of those 170 stocks that are down by 25% to 50%, this rally might feel more like a recession to you. Tough luck, huh?
Shah also noted that 363 out of 730 stocks have fallen by up to 25% since October 15, 2024. And if that’s not bad enough, another 170 stocks have nosedived between 25% and 50%. Yikes. Seven stocks even took a dive of over 50%. It’s like a rollercoaster of losses out there in the market.
So, the Nifty 50 might be hitting that 25,000 milestone after a long slog of 7 months. But don’t get too excited just yet. While the index is shining bright, your portfolio might still be sulking in a corner. Tough times, my friend, tough times.
In the midst of all this chaos, the domestic market has somehow managed to deliver a strong performance over the past month. Despite all the global and local uncertainty, the markets seem to be holding their ground. It’s like they’re saying, “Bring it on, we can take it!”
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The market is probably pricing in a quick resolution to all the trade and tariff issues with the US, along with keeping a lid on the geopolitical risks. And hey, the recent calming down of tensions between India and Pakistan might give a little boost to investor sentiment. The risk-reward balance seems to be hanging on a thread between improving macros, weak earnings growth outlook, further earnings downgrades, and high valuations. Quite the balancing act, isn’t it?
So next time someone mentions, “Hey, Nifty’s at 25k!” just remember to ask yourself, “But is my portfolio there too?” It’s all fun and games until you check your investments, am I right?