Coking Coal Prices Facing Bearish Trends in 2025
The coking coal market is currently facing a challenging outlook in 2025 due to various factors impacting prices and demand. With Australia’s premium hard-coking coal prices hovering around $191/tonne, experts are predicting further pressure and volatility in the coming months. The recent US import tariffs on steel, coupled with weak global steel production growth, are contributing to the bearish trends in the coking coal market.
Price Forecast: Slowing Steel Production and Market Volatility
Analysts have lowered their price forecast for coking coal to $200/tonne from $220 due to plunging prices and slowing steel production growth in most importing nations. While Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) anticipates prices to average around $205 a tonne, market illiquidity and geopolitical factors could lead to high volatility. Recent reports from Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) indicate a rise in coking coal inventories, adding to the uncertainty in the market.
India Emerges as a Key Player in Coking Coal Imports
On a positive note, India has emerged as a significant player in coking coal imports, with shipments reaching a 10-year high of 58 million tonnes in FY2024. This increase in demand, driven by Indian steel mills, has benefited countries like Russia and the United States while challenging Australian Newcastle coking coal. The rise in Indian activity in the spot market is seen as a potential upside for coking coal prices, providing some relief amidst the overall bearish outlook.
Expert Insights and Long-Term Trends: A Shift Towards Greener Economy
Despite the current challenges facing the coking coal market, experts predict a long-term downward trend in prices as global blast furnace steel production slows down in response to the transition to a greener economy. The sentiment-driven market, coupled with weak global steel production, is expected to keep coking coal prices capped in the near term. While countries like Russia have successfully increased their coking coal exports to India, the overall market remains uncertain, with prices likely to remain under pressure.
In conclusion, the coking coal market is navigating through a complex landscape in 2025, marked by bearish trends, price volatility, and shifting global dynamics. As the industry grapples with challenges such as weak steel production and geopolitical uncertainties, it remains to be seen how key players like India and Russia will influence the market in the coming months. Despite the current headwinds, opportunities for growth and resilience are on the horizon, signaling a dynamic future for the coking coal sector.